Herefordshire housing land supply falls to 2.81 years

Herefordshire housing land supply has fallen to just 2.81 years, leaving the county well below the five-year benchmark and giving applicants a significant new piece of evidence for housing proposals.

The council announced the position on 2nd October 2026, alongside 677 net additional homes completed during 2025/26. Its September supply statement identifies 4,046 deliverable dwellings against a buffered five-year requirement of 7,203.

For landowners and applicants, this matters now. The shortfall is relevant to the August 2026 NPPF’s approach to development outside settlements, although it does not guarantee permission or remove environmental, infrastructure and neighbourhood-plan constraints.

Why Herefordshire housing land supply has fallen

The council attributes much of the change to a higher national housing requirement, rather than a sudden halt in construction. The December 2024 changes to the standard method increased the amount of housing against which its supply is measured.

In the council’s announcement, deputy leader and strategic planning cabinet member Cllr Elissa Swinglehurst said the position was “largely the result of a significant increase in the housing target”.

That explanation matters, but so does the practical outcome. A larger denominator can reduce the years of supply even while houses continue to be built. Applicants and decision-makers must work with the current requirement and realistic delivery evidence.

Herefordshire housing land supply calculation: 1,372 or 1,362?

The September statement gives the annual position at 1st April 2026. There is a discrepancy in the council’s published material. The press release says the annual requirement rose from 773 to 1,362 homes. However, Figure 7 of the formal September 2026 housing land supply statement uses 1,372 homes a year.

We have used 1,372 as the operative figure in the formal calculation. Multiplying it by five gives the stated 6,860-home requirement, whereas 1,362 would not. The accompanying release’s different figure should not be silently substituted into that assessment.

The statement displays an annualised requirement of 1,440; the unrounded calculation is 7,203 divided by five, or 1,440.6. Using either figure gives 2.81 years to two decimal places.

Delivery performance and land supply measure different things

The Herefordshire housing land supply statement records a Housing Delivery Test result of 96%. This measures recent delivery against the relevant requirement, while five-year supply assesses the forward pipeline of deliverable sites.

Under NPPF Annex D, delivery below 95% triggers an action plan and delivery below 85% triggers the under-delivery 20% buffer. Herefordshire’s 96% result triggers neither consequence on that basis.

The council therefore uses the standard 5% buffer. Its satisfactory recent test result does not cancel the separate shortfall in future land supply. Equally, the 2.81-year figure should not be presented as proof that no homes are being built.

Hardwick Bank loses its 250-home contribution

The Bromyard Hardwick Bank allocation illustrates the gap between a promising application and homes that can be counted as deliverable.

The statement says Bovis Homes has the controlling interest and that the outline proposal for 250 homes received a resolution to grant at committee in January 2024. A subsequent committee agreed a timetable to November 2024 for the section 106 agreement and phosphate credits.

Those requirements were not secured. The council could not issue permission, and the application was refused on 3rd July 2026. The statement consequently excludes the site from the five-year supply.

For me, this is the point applicants should take away: a committee resolution is an important step, but it is not an issued permission. Unresolved obligations and mitigation can prevent a scheme moving into delivery.

Why the development pipeline cannot all be counted

The Herefordshire housing land supply assessment applies 622 dwellings of discounts: 410 on resolution-to-grant sites, 204 associated with outline permissions and eight because of phosphate constraints.

These discounts reduce commitments before other supply components are added. They should not be deducted again from the final 4,046 figure.

The statement also discusses the two Leominster Southern Expansion applications for up to 650 and 1,000 homes. Both remain undetermined, and it does not expect homes from them within the current five-year period.

Large headline capacities do not therefore answer the five-year question. The relevant issue is when homes can realistically be delivered, with evidence on outstanding decisions, obligations, mitigation and build-out.

That distinction is relevant to the wider pressure we reported in Housing pipeline down 21%, as approvals crash to record low. For an individual application, however, the local evidence must carry the argument.

What the shortfall means outside settlements

The August 2026 NPPF directs decisions through S4 within settlements and S5 outside them.

Policy S5(1)(j) includes development addressing evidenced unmet need. For housing, this expressly covers an authority unable to demonstrate five years of deliverable supply, or scoring below 75% in the latest Housing Delivery Test. These are alternative triggers.

Housing must also be physically well-related to an existing settlement and of a scale that existing or proposed infrastructure can accommodate. The policy’s approval balance asks whether adverse effects substantially outweigh the benefits, assessed against national decision-making policies.

This is a material opportunity for suitable proposals, not automatic permission. S5 does not apply directly in the Green Belt or on Local Green Space, where the relevant specific policies govern the assessment.

Recent neighbourhood plans need checking too: S6 can weigh against proposals conflicting with a plan no more than five years old which contains allocations meeting its identified housing requirement.

Phosphate constraints remain a live issue

The council continues to identify phosphate constraints in parts of the River Lugg catchment as a barrier to development. Its statement says work on the phosphate-credit system is continuing and applications remain held up awaiting decisions.

We should not confuse work towards a solution with every site having a solution. Applicants need to establish the position for their particular proposal and whether the necessary mitigation can be secured.

The supply shortfall does not remove that requirement. A strong housing-need argument and an unresolved environmental obstacle can exist at the same time.

What applicants should review now

For live applications, planning statements should address the new Herefordshire housing land supply assessment and explain how the proposal responds to unmet need. Outside settlement boundaries, the relationship to the settlement and infrastructure capacity need a clear, evidenced case.

For housing appeals already in progress, review supply evidence and statements of common ground. Committee reports should also distinguish the forward shortfall from the Housing Delivery Test result.

Landowners considering an application should begin with the site’s constraints and policy position. I would not assume that every field adjoining a village is now suitable for housing simply because the county has 2.81 years of supply.

We can help assess the planning opportunity and coordinate the necessary specialist input. The new evidence materially strengthens the housing-need case, but a successful proposal still needs to show why this site, this scale and this development are acceptable.