Housebuilding starts jump 20%, but BSR reporting clouds the recovery

England recorded a sharp rise in reported housebuilding starts this spring, but the latest government data come with a warning that makes the apparent recovery much less clear-cut.

Building-control data show 35,910 new-build starts between April and June 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, 6% higher than the previous quarter and 20% higher than a year earlier. Completions were 35,800, down 3% on the quarter and only 1% higher year-on-year.

On the face of it, starts look considerably stronger. The problem is that the series itself has changed.

Why the 20% rise in housebuilding starts needs a large health warning

MHCLG says the higher starts recorded in the final quarter of 2025 and the first two quarters of 2026 are partly due to a step-change in reporting by the Building Safety Regulator.

The BSR reported 5,758 starts in April to June 2026. That follows 6,276 in January to March and 7,089 in the final quarter of 2025. Before that change, the largest number it had reported in any quarter was 1,206 in July to September 2025.

That does not mean the underlying market has not improved. It means the published 20% year-on-year increase cannot safely be read as a clean 20% increase in real-world activity. MHCLG itself says the recent higher figures are in part due to BSR reporting.

The wider building-control series also only covers about 80% of housebuilding in England, so it remains an indicator rather than the final measure of housing delivery.

The newest EPC signal is pointing the other way

The most interesting counter-signal comes from Energy Performance Certificates. There were 51,000 EPCs lodged for new dwellings in April to June 2026, 2% more than a year earlier. Over the year to June there were 202,670, up 3%.

But MHCLG’s more recent 13-week measure is weaker. In the 13 weeks to the week beginning 14th September 2026, 46,240 new-build EPCs were lodged, 7% fewer than the comparable period a year earlier.

EPCs are not a direct substitute for the building-control starts and completions series. Quarterly new-dwelling EPC figures include new builds, conversions and changes of use, while the 13-week series isolates new-build lodgements and is subject to its own revisions. Even so, the latest direction does not support a simple story of rapidly accelerating delivery.

Completions remain broadly flat

The completion side of the pipeline is much less dramatic. The 35,800 seasonally adjusted completions in the quarter were 1% above April to June 2025, but 3% below January to March 2026.

Across the year to 30th June 2026, building-control data recorded 143,770 completions, effectively unchanged from the previous year. Annual starts were 136,330, up 15%, although that series is also affected by the BSR reporting change.

For context, completions remain well below the 181,940 recorded in the year to June 2021. Starts are also far below the unusual 192,210 peak in the year to June 2023, which was itself distorted by housebuilders bringing work forward ahead of changes to building regulations.

Regional figures underline the mixed picture

Annual starts increased in seven of England’s nine regions, but the spread was enormous. London recorded a 298% increase and the North East 24%, while starts fell 10% in the South East and 3% in the East of England.

Completions rose in five regions. London was up 9% and the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber were each up 6%, while the West Midlands fell 7% and the East Midlands 5%.

The release does not separate those regional totals by reporting source, so the very large London starts increase should not automatically be treated as a pure market-growth figure.

Delivery is still weaker than the headline starts number suggests

The most complete annual measure remains net additional dwellings. The latest confirmed total is 208,600 in 2024-25, down 6% on the previous year.

MHCLG has also introduced an interim EPC-based estimate for periods not yet covered by the annual statistics. It estimates around 196,900 net additional homes in 2025-26, which would be about 6% lower again, although that figure is provisional and will be replaced by the annual net additions statistics.

For final tenure, the latest annual estimate remains 2024-25: 71% of new-build completions were private enterprise, 25% housing associations and 4% local authorities. MHCLG cautions that the provider recorded in building-control data is not necessarily the eventual tenure of the home.

A recovery signal, but not yet a clean recovery

For developers and the wider land market, the useful reading is not that housebuilding has suddenly jumped 20%. It is that some indicators have strengthened, completions have stabilised, but the evidence is not yet moving consistently in one direction. Upstream, the same day’s planning statistics showed detailed housing permissions down to a provisional 212,000 homes, reinforcing the mixed pipeline picture.

That matters alongside recent evidence from the residential land market. Henry Boot reported residential land sales more than halving while Hallam Land continued to invest heavily in planning. A stronger starts series would be encouraging, but today’s data are not clean enough to call a broad-based recovery.

The full MHCLG housing supply release and housebuilding live tables are available on GOV.UK.