New home Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), referred to in the official data as new home EPCs, fell by 5% across England and Wales in July to September 2026, according to official figures published on 29 October by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. Around 48,000 energy certificates were lodged for new dwellings, even as certificates for existing homes rose by 11%.
The new-dwelling decline was 4% in England and a sharper 19% in Wales compared with July to September 2025. England recorded around 46,000 new-dwelling certificates and Wales around 2,000. Meanwhile, existing homes accounted for approximately 377,000 certificates in England and 21,000 in Wales, both increases on the same quarter a year earlier.
This matters to planners, developers and anyone trying to understand housing delivery, but the figures need careful handling. New home EPCs are a useful early signal, not a direct count of completed new-build houses. The official series also includes conversions and changes of use, and its latest quarterly movement is not identical to the longer-term trend.
New home EPCs fall as existing homes rise
Across England and Wales, the official release records about 468,000 certificates for domestic and non-domestic buildings combined, a 9% annual increase. Within the domestic series, the direction is very different for new and existing dwellings. New home EPCs decreased to approximately 48,000, whereas existing-dwelling certificates increased to approximately 398,000.
In England alone, 423,000 domestic certificates were lodged, 10% more than in the comparable quarter of 2025. Of those, 377,000 related to existing homes, a 12% increase, while 46,000 related to new dwellings, a 4% fall. It would be misleading to treat the higher overall number of certificates as evidence that construction has accelerated.
There is an important counterpoint in the rolling annual results. Across the twelve months ending September 2026, England recorded about 199,000 new-dwelling certificates, 1% more than in the previous twelve months. A quarterly decline and a small annual increase can both be true because they measure different periods. Neither figure, on its own, establishes what happened to the planning permission pipeline.
Regional differences across England
New home EPCs were not falling everywhere. The South East recorded 8,489 certificates for new dwellings, 9% more than a year earlier, while the East Midlands reported 5,174, up 4%. London recorded 7,176, effectively unchanged on the previous year’s third quarter.
The largest regional percentage fall was in Yorkshire and the Humber, where 3,404 new-dwelling certificates represented a 19% decrease. The West Midlands recorded 4,033, down 15%, while both the North West and South West were down 8%. These are certificates lodged during the period, not a regional league table of planning permissions or final net housing additions.
Existing homes tell a contrasting story. The North East recorded 23,648 certificates for existing dwellings, up 49%, and the North West recorded 54,641, up 18%. Changes in property transactions, lettings and other circumstances that require an assessment can affect those figures. An increase in existing-home EPCs should not be presented as a corresponding increase in the number of homes available.
Wales records a sharper decline
In Wales, new home EPCs fell 19% to around 2,000 in July to September 2026, while existing-dwelling certificates rose 3% to approximately 21,000. The full domestic total was around 23,000, an increase of 1%. Small Welsh local-authority counts can produce especially large percentage movements, so local variations should be read alongside their underlying numbers.
For example, Cardiff recorded 330 certificates for new dwellings, 54% fewer than the same quarter of 2025. Neath Port Talbot recorded 93, up 166%, while Wrexham recorded 34, down 70%. Those percentages describe EPC lodgements, not directly measured changes in completed homes. A single development or group of certifications can materially influence a smaller area’s quarterly result.
Looking at a full year changes the perspective again. Wales recorded around 8,000 new-dwelling certificates in the twelve months to September 2026, 10% more than the preceding twelve months. The current quarter is therefore a warning signal that warrants scrutiny, not proof of a year-long collapse in Welsh housebuilding.
Why certificates are not housing completions
The department explicitly identifies EPC figures as useful “as an early indication of new housing supply”. That qualification matters. A certificate can be lodged for a new build, a conversion or a change of use, and the administrative event of lodging the assessment is not the same as the date a household moves into a home.
The statistics also undertake additional data cleaning to remove duplicate certificates for new dwellings, because a property can be assessed at design stage and assessed again if its specification changes during construction. Those adjustments make the results more useful, but they do not convert the series into a direct measure of completions. MHCLG says the more definitive net-additions measure accounts for demolitions.
For readers unfamiliar with the distinction, Planning Geek’s Energy Performance Certificate guide explains what an assessment records. The broader housing pipeline also needs permission figures, starts, completions and net additions considered separately. Our earlier report on housebuilding starts and Building Safety Regulator reporting examined why another data series also needs careful interpretation.
Nor should new home EPCs be used to compare countries without explaining differences in legislation and data collection. This release specifically covers England and Wales. Scotland uses its own EPC register, and Northern Ireland has distinct arrangements. The combined 5% figure is not a United Kingdom-wide decline.
Energy ratings tell a different story
The release provides an energy-efficiency comparison alongside the number of certificates. In England, 85% of new dwellings assessed in the quarter received an A or B rating, down slightly from 86% a year earlier. Some 62% received a B rating. For existing dwellings, the most common ratings were C and D.
Wales reported that 92% of its new dwellings received an A or B rating, and 62% received the highest A rating. Those figures apply to the properties with certificates lodged in the period, not the entire housing stock. They should not be used to infer that every new dwelling in one nation performs better than an otherwise comparable dwelling in the other.
Energy ratings are also not a substitute for a planning or building-control assessment. Design, carbon emissions, heating systems and future fabric standards raise different questions. Planning Geek’s Passivhaus and planning guide explains the relationship between very-low-energy design aspirations, planning policies and Building Regulations.
What the next releases could reveal
The next quarterly EPC release is scheduled for 28 January 2027. A further comparable period will help show whether the latest fall in new home EPCs is sustained or proves to be a short-lived movement in certification. Any interpretation should also consider revisions, the timing of assessments and the fact that the figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The department also published a new annual energy performance statistics series on 29 October, providing a separate view of characteristics and ratings for properties with valid certificates. The annual series should not be mistaken for an additional count of construction projects alongside the quarterly lodgements.
For me, the immediate planning lesson is that headline housing numbers need to be labelled precisely. The new home EPCs data point to softer third-quarter certification in England and Wales even while existing-home assessment activity increased. That is worth reporting, but it does not justify saying either that development has stopped or that overall housing delivery has recovered. The next evidence will need to be read just as carefully.
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